Azmi Bshara's brilliant comments on the situation in Libya:

Via http://www.libyafeb17.com/2011/03/march-16-updates/

Al Jazeera Arabic Political Analyst Azmi Bshara has spoken beautifully once again this evening, and luckily I was able to jot down an document almost everything he said. I will provide it to you in summarised note form, though do keep in mind that I have not included the questions that he was asked by the news anchors for fear of missing what he might say. I hope you find this translation useful:

• Gaddafi and Saif’s last speeches clearly demonstrate their intent in psychological warfare. The speeches were well planned and clearly structured by experts. Money can easily buy you people these days
• If its military strength that decides who the world sides with, then Saif was trying to say: The strength is with us, we will end this in 48 hours
• Let’s assume that Saif is right. Is it something worth boasting about and being proud of that you have to physically crush and bombard your own people with tanks and heavy artillery in order to rule over them?
• The decision that world governments make is not guided by interests only. Whoever wants contracts with Libya will be able to get them. Libya isn’t going anywhere as a country, and it will still need to sell its oil.
• An important factor that plays in Europe and America is “Public Opinion”. Libya and France have negatively clashed during the Libya-Chad war when Libya wanted to play the role of a superpower in Africa, a continent where France has dominated and still does
• Another factor is competing interests. There are new BIG players in North Africa, namely Turkey who has struck contracts worth 100 billion dollars with Libya over the next three years in varying sectors. This touches on the interests of other countries namely Europe.
• In the developed countries, we notice a cross sometimes between politics and economy
• There are other variables that play into which direction countries side with regarding Libya. In the case of Russia, we keep in mind the arms deals it has with Libya.
• High oil prices may not be a good factor for many European countries but in the case of Russia it is a positive thing due to its role in oil production
• The last time a “Freedom Fighters” group was armed was in Afghanistan when the Taliban were fighting Russia. These same weapons were later used against the same people who supplied them when America declared war on Afghanistan in 2001
• Germany is being cautious and asking questions that relate to the political ideologies of the Libyan revolution before even discussing the idea of providing them with arms because they are not sure which way the revolution may swing after it defeats Gaddafi. Another reason is because Libya so much closer to Europe than Afghanistan
• Any freedom movement is not guaranteed as to where it’ll go after succeeding. It’s a gamble whether you arm them or not
• At the same time, not arming the revolutionaries in the Public opinion means indirectly supporting and condoning what Gaddafi’s regime is doing
• One thing the world needs to realise as 100% fact is that Libya can never go back to the way it used to be pre-17th February
• If Europe and the world are to help arm the revolution, then this will be for many reasons:
• 1. Pressure from the neighbouring Arab nations, especially after the consensus reached during the Arab League meeting
• 2. Public opinion which has clearly voiced its hatred for Gaddafi’s regime and the crimes it’s committing
• 3. The masses are out!
• In the beginning of the Egyptian revolution, the Obama administration was stating that Egypt was “politically stable”. They did not change their opinion until the millions came out and occupied the squares and streets of the country. Though Libya is not witnessing such demonstrations, it’s going about it differently and thousands are dying for the cause.
• I expect for the UN resolution to pass tomorrow. I dismiss the fear of Russia and China using the right of Veto because these countries have restricted their use of it to regional issues only in the past. Last time Russia used power of Veto was in 1991 for example.
• I doubt America will Veto the resolution out of fear of the public opinion backlash, and especially during this critical time with elections next year.

22:31 Al Jazeera Arabic is reporting from revolutionaries that 3 helicopters manned by defected pilots bombarded Gaddafi’s forces which were based on the outskirts of east Ajdabiya today.
22:27 Al Jazeera Arabic Eyewitness from Tripoli called in and reported the hearing of very heavy gunfire from within the military college. The eyewitness also reported that screams could be heard with the words “no no!” being extremely audible.
22:23 Reuters The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) said on Wednesday it had withdrawn its aid workers from Benghazi and called on both warring sides in Libya to spare civilians and medical staff. The independent humanitarian agency was among the only aid agencies deployed in the rebel stronghold in the east, where Libyan forces advanced on Wednesday as diplomatic steps to stop the bloodshed ran aground. Read article here